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 024 
 WTNT43 KNHC 192053
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016
 500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016
 
 Satellite imagery, scatterometer data, and ship observations
 indicate that the large low pressure system located southwest of the
 Cabo Verde Islands has maintained a well-defined circulation and has
 developed sufficient organized convection to be considered a
 tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on
 scatterometer wind data of near 30 kt along with Dvorak satellite
 intensity estimates T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB,
 respectively. The central pressure is based on reports from ship
 D5ET2 during is traversal through the center of the cyclone over the
 past 12 hours. The depression is a large tropical cyclone with a
 wind field that is more than 400 n mi in diameter.
 
 The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/10 kt, based
 primarily on scatterometer and microwave satellite data.  The
 depression is located along the southern periphery of a large
 deep-layer ridge that is foreast to steer the cyclone westward for
 the next 24 hours or so, followed by west-northwestward motion
 through 120 hours. The official forecast track lies close to the
 consensus model TVCN through 96 hours, and then leans toward a blend
 of the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models since the GFS dissipates
 the cyclone by 120 hours, a scenario that seems premature given the
 current large size of the cyclone.
 
 Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low at less than 10 kt
 over the cyclone for the next 48 hours, which favors steady
 intensification. However, the mid-level moisture is only expected to
 be marginal during that time, with humidity values around 60 percent
 or less. The drier air along with the large size of the cyclone are
 expected to temper the development process, and this is reflected by
 the slower-than-average intensification rate. The NHC intensity
 forecast closely follows the intensity model IVCN. This forecast is
 lower than the SHIPS, LGEM, and ECMWF models, which brings the
 cyclone to near hurricane strength by 72 hours.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/2100Z 13.6N  28.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  20/0600Z 14.3N  29.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  20/1800Z 15.6N  31.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  21/0600Z 16.7N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  21/1800Z 17.6N  35.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  22/1800Z 19.5N  38.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  23/1800Z 21.5N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  24/1800Z 23.5N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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