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 710 
 WTNT44 KNHC 242257
 TCDAT4
 HURRICANE LISA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
 700 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010
  
 LISA HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED EYE SURROUNDED BY A
 RING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C AS SEEN IN GEOSTATIONARY
 IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS EYE IS ALSO
 CONFIRMED BY A RECENT SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS.  SPECIAL DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS FROM AROUND 2200 UTC BY TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH
 4.0...65 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO THAT
 VALUE.  LISA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AS IT
 ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.  THE NEW INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS NEAR...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
 CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  
 
 NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/2300Z 20.2N  27.8W    65 KT
  12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N  28.0W    70 KT
  24HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N  28.3W    65 KT
  36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.1N  28.7W    55 KT
  48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N  29.1W    40 KT
  72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.3N  29.9W    30 KT
  96HR VT     28/1800Z 29.0N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
 
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