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 958 
 WTNT44 KNHC 240844
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010
 500 AM AST FRI SEP 24 2010
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED
 AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LISA IN RECENT HOURS AS CONVECTION
 IN A BAND WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS GENERALLY BEEN
 DECREASING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE
 OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
 ORGANIZATION. DVORAK CI NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 2.0 AND 2.5
 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR KEEPING
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT. THE POSSIBILITY OF LISA INTENSIFYING
 IS DECREASING. IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO REACH AN
 ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
 COOLER WATERS...AND HIGHER STABILITY. THESE FACTORS SHOULD PROMOTE
 A STEADY WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE RAPID THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE
 BUT REMAINS A BIT LOWER THAN MOST OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
 GUIDANCE.
  
 AN 0349 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE
 CENTER OF LISA. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...
 AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/04. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LISA
 MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN
 PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST AFRICA. AFTER
 THAT...A WEAKER LISA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-
 NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. THE
 NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT BUT NOT AS
 FAR EAST AS THE GFDL/HWRF/UKMET WHICH GENERALLY HAVE STRONGER AND
 LIKELY UNREALISTIC REPRESENTATIONS OF LISA...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48
 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
 ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      24/0900Z 18.4N  27.7W    35 KT
  12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.2N  27.9W    40 KT
  24HR VT     25/0600Z 20.6N  28.3W    35 KT
  36HR VT     25/1800Z 22.1N  28.8W    30 KT
  48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.6N  29.2W    30 KT
  72HR VT     27/0600Z 26.0N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N  32.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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