047 
 WTNT43 KNHC 020218
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004
  
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES PEAKED AT 4.0 T NUMBERS AT 18Z AND HAVE
 NOW DECREASED TO 3.5 T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...EVEN THOUGH
 THERE ARE SOME ELEMENTS PRESENT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE.  ALSO A 21Z
 HI-RES QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KNOTS.  SO THE
 INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS.  WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
 IS ALREADY SEEN TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
 CIRCULATION.  SO WITH COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR
 AHEAD...LISA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/16.  LISA IS EMBEDDED IN
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
 MOSTLY EASTWARD BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.  THE GFS SUGGESTS
 A MERGER BETWEEN LISA AND AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH IS PROBABLY
 THE REMNANT OF JEANNE WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS SEPARATE SYSTEMS.  IN
 EITHER CASE...LISA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN
 24 HOURS OR SO.
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0300Z 39.6N  42.8W    60 KT
  12HR VT     02/1200Z 41.5N  39.5W    55 KT
  24HR VT     03/0000Z 44.2N  32.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     03/1200Z 45.6N  23.8W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     04/0000Z 46.5N  13.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     05/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
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