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 665 
 WTNT43 KNHC 290229
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004
  
 VARIOUS SATELLITE SOURCES INDICATE LISA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
 ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED. A 28/1936Z TRMM OVERPASS INDCIATED
 A NICE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS STILL SHEARED ABOUT 30 NMI TO
 THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 28/2115Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT
 OVERPASS REVEALED A SEVERAL RAINFLAGGED WINDS OF 60-70 KT AND A
 28/1708Z CIRA/AMSU OVERPASS PROVIDED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND
 SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 59 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS
 BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE MICROWAVE DATA AND A DVORAK SATELLITE
 ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM TAFB. 
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/11. LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
 NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AROUND THE
 WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 30-32N
 LATITUDE. BY 48-72 HOURS...AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN LISA MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING ABOUT
 RECURVATURE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. IN 96-120 HOURS...
 LISA IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BECOME
 EXTRATROPICAL...OR EVEN MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE
 NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO. 
 
 LISA REMAINS A RATHER TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DEVELOPING A
 NICE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE DESPITE RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.
 THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS LISA HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING AND THE
 SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KT
 IN THE 24-72 HOUR PERIOD. LISA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C OR
 HIGHER SSTS THROUGH 36 HOURS...SO SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS
 FORECAST. AFTER 36 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-25C
 SSTS AND SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0300Z 27.0N  46.5W    55 KT
  12HR VT     29/1200Z 28.7N  46.7W    55 KT
  24HR VT     30/0000Z 30.5N  47.3W    60 KT
  36HR VT     30/1200Z 32.3N  48.2W    65 KT
  48HR VT     01/0000Z 34.0N  48.7W    60 KT
  72HR VT     02/0000Z 38.0N  47.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     03/0000Z 41.0N  42.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     04/0000Z 43.5N  32.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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