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 975 
 WTNT43 KNHC 230832
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004
 
 LISA IS CONTINUING TO MERGE WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.  A
 LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD A FEW HUNDRED MILES
 FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE STORM IS PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF
 THIS DISTURBANCE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP
 CONVECTION IN THIS COMBINED SYSTEM IS NOW BEING PRODUCED BY THE
 CIRCULATION OF LISA... AND NOT THE DISTURBANCE.  BASED ON DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.  LISA'S
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED BY NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL
 FLOW FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE KARL.  AS
 KARL MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD...ITS INFLUENCE ON LISA WILL DIMINISH. 
 NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES
 BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN
 WITHIN A DAY OR SO.
 
 THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT.  THERE IS NO
 CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
 A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER LISA SLOWLY WESTWARD TO
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER A
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 50W IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A
 TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE LEFT
 SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      23/0900Z 13.2N  41.4W    45 KT
  12HR VT     23/1800Z 13.3N  41.9W    45 KT
  24HR VT     24/0600Z 13.4N  42.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     24/1800Z 13.6N  43.2W    50 KT
  48HR VT     25/0600Z 14.2N  44.0W    55 KT
  72HR VT     26/0600Z 16.5N  45.5W    65 KT
  96HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N  47.0W    70 KT
 120HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N  48.0W    70 KT
  
 $$
 
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