619 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 091438
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
 800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015
 
 Deep convection continues to diminish in association with Linda,
 with only a small area of cold cloud tops near and west of the
 center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on a
 blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.
 Further rapid weakening is expected as Linda moves over cooler SSTs
 and into a dry, stable air mass. Linda should become a remnant low
 by 48 hours, or even a bit sooner.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 325/11. Linda should continue moving
 northwestward for the next 36 hours and then turn gradually more
 westward as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the
 low-level flow. By the end of the period, a motion toward the
 southwest or south-southwest is possible. The new NHC track forecast
 is similar to the previous one but has been adjusted a bit to the
 right and faster to account for the initial position and motion and
 the latest trends in the guidance. The NHC forecast is generally
 close to or a little to the right of the ECMWF through much of the
 forecast period.
 
 Large swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central
 portions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula.
 These swells are expected to reach the Pacific coast of the northern
 Baja California peninsula today and reach southern California by
 Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture
 is expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern
 U.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy
 rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued
 by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast
 office.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/1500Z 24.2N 116.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 26.3N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 27.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 27.4N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/1200Z 28.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/1200Z 28.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/1200Z 27.5N 124.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan