821 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 090232
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015
 
 Cloud tops within Linda's CDO feature have warmed significantly
 since the previous advisory, likely due to the erosion of eyewall
 convection in the northern semicircle caused by the entrainment
 of dry mid-level air as noted in recent microwave satellite
 imagery. Although the 15 n mi diameter eye remains quite distinct,
 satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply. The initial
 intensity of 100 kt is based on an average of Dvorak satellite
 T-numbers and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.
 
 The initial motion estimate is now 325/11 kt. The track and forecast
 reasoning remain unchanged. The NHC model guidance is in very good
 agreement on Linda moving northwestward for the next 48 hours,
 followed by a turn to the west-northwest by 72 hours. After that
 time, the model tracks are widely divergent based on the intensity
 and resultant vertical depth of the cyclone on days 4 and 5. The
 ECMWF takes a weak remnant low due west, whereas the stronger GFS
 and HWRF models take Linda more poleward. The official forecast at
 96 and 120 hours is a compromise of these extremes and lies close
 to the TCVE and GFEX consensus model tracks.
 
 Linda will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and over upper-ocean-heat-
 content (UOHC) values of near zero about 12 hours, while the
 hurricane is slowing down to less than 10 kt of forward speed. This
 should result in significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone and
 induce a rapid weakening phase. As result, Linda is expected to
 weaken to a tropical storm by Thursday morning, a depression by
 Thursday night, and a remnant low on Friday. The official intensity
 forecast follows the downward trend of the previous forecast and the
 IVCN intensity consensus model.
 
 Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
 California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
 of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. In
 addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected
 to spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. by day 2
 and beyond, which could help trigger locally heavy rainfall. For
 additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA
 Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  09/0300Z 22.7N 115.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 23.7N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 25.0N 117.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z 26.1N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z 26.9N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  12/0000Z 27.6N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  13/0000Z 27.8N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  14/0000Z 27.6N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart