503 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 081434
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
 900 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015
 
 The satellite presentation of Linda has improved this morning, with
 an eye becoming apparent in infrared imagery. Dvorak satellite
 classifications were T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and T5.5/102 kt from
 SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have increased to T5.9/112 kt.
 The initial intensity is set conservatively to 105 kt given the
 rapid change in the satellite presentation and the variation seen in
 the definition of the eye in recent images. This makes Linda the
 fifth major hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin this year.
 
 It would appear that Linda is peaking in intensity now, as the
 cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a
 drier more stable environment over the next several days. Slow
 weakening is forecast today, followed by more rapid weakening due to
 the above-mentioned unfavorable factors. The new NHC forecast is
 higher than the previous one through 24 hours to account for the
 initial intensity, but is similar to the previous official forecast
 after that time. Linda should become a remnant low in about 3 days
 over very cool waters west of the Baja California peninsula.
 
 Linda has been moving a little faster during the past few hours,
 with an initial motion estimate of 335/12. The tropical cyclone
 should turn toward the northwest later today under the influence of
 a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico. The remnant low is then
 forecast to turn west-northwestward and westward by the end of the
 period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The track model
 guidance has continued to shift toward the right this cycle, and is
 also a bit faster. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to account
 for those trends, and now lies on the left side of the guidance
 envelope, between the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus.
 
 Although Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja
 California peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions
 of the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. The
 analyzed 12-ft seas radii were increased based on data from a recent
 Jason-2 satellite altimeter pass.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z 22.3N 114.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 23.7N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 25.0N 117.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  10/1200Z 26.1N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  11/1200Z 27.3N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  12/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/1200Z 27.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan