962 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 062036
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015
 300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015
 
 Linda is strengthening.  Satellite images indicate that banding
 features have become better defined during the last several hours,
 and deep convection has been persisting near the center.  The
 circulation and cloud field of Linda are quite large, extending
 several hundred miles across.  The Dvorak classifications at 1800
 UTC have increased to 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 3.0/45 kt from SAB, and
 ADT values from UW-CIMSS are around 3.4/53 kt.  Based on these
 estimates, the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt.
 
 Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days as
 the shear is expected to remain relatively light while the cyclone
 is embedded within a moist air mass and over warm waters. After 48
 hours, however, Linda is expected to move over progressively cooler
 water and into a drier and more stable air mass.  These conditions
 should end the strengthening trend, and induce a gradual weakening.
 The NHC intensity forecast shows a higher peak intensity than the
 previous one and leans toward the upper end of the guidance, in best
 agreement with the SHIPS model.
 
 Linda continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt on the
 southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system located over
 northern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is
 expected to be nearly stationary during the next couple of days,
 which should keep Linda moving northwestward at a similar or
 slightly faster forward speed.  After that time, a slowdown is
 predicted as the ridge weakens some and shifts westward.  The NHC
 track forecast has again been shifted a little to the north of the
 previous one, trending toward the latest guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/2100Z 14.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  07/0600Z 16.1N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  07/1800Z 18.0N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  08/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  09/1800Z 23.0N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  10/1800Z 24.6N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  11/1800Z 25.4N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi