213 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 101438
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
 800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2009
 
 ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN AQUA-1 AMSR-E COLOR
 COMPOSITE MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT LINDA HAS STRENGTHENED
 SOME THIS MORNING. DESPITE 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...THE
 CYCLONE STRUCTURE IS COMPRISED OF IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
 SEMI-CIRCLE AND A 90 PERCENT CLOSED EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS SET AT 75 KT...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK AND AMSU TC
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A
 WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING
 SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 BASICALLY A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE ICON
 MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/8 KT...WITHIN THE
 SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF
 LINDA AND A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE
 CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS. BEYOND DAY 3...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDN/GFDL
 SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TO THE NORTH OF
 LINDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO
 WEAKEN THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. AS A
 RESULT...LINDA SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A
 GENERAL NORTHWARD COMPONENT AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS SCENARIO AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL BLEND. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/1500Z 18.4N 130.1W    75 KT
  12HR VT     11/0000Z 19.4N 130.6W    65 KT
  24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.6N 131.4W    55 KT
  36HR VT     12/0000Z 21.3N 132.1W    50 KT
  48HR VT     12/1200Z 21.7N 132.8W    35 KT
  72HR VT     13/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W    25 KT
  96HR VT     14/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     15/1200Z 23.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA