529 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 181502
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005
  
 THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIDIA HAS REDEVELOPED. DESPITE
 THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO REMAIN
 ORGANIZED. A HELPFUL 0933Z AMSR-E PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED
 CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
 IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND STILL THIS
 POSITION MAY NEED TO BE READJUSTED BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK
 ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. LIDIA IS CURRENTLY BEING
 INFLUENCED BY A DISTURBANCE 250 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE
 INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY HELP TO INFLUENCE
 BOTH THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST.
  
 THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...280/2.
 TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERGENT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY
 BETWEEN LIDIA AND THE DISTURBANCE.  THERFORE...THE LARGE SCALE
 STEERING MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES LIDIA VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS
 MAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
 THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ARRIVED AND IT APPEARS
 THAT LIDIA AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE POSSIBLY TRYING TO
 MERGE. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER LIDIA WILL REMAIN THE
 DOMINANT CIRCULATION OR BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION
 TO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE UNUSUAL NATURE OF
 THIS SCENARIO...THE CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW.
  
  
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/1500Z 12.5N 115.8W    40 KT
  12HR VT     19/0000Z 12.6N 116.0W    40 KT
  24HR VT     19/1200Z 12.8N 116.4W    45 KT
  36HR VT     20/0000Z 13.2N 116.9W    45 KT
  48HR VT     20/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W    45 KT
  72HR VT     21/1200Z 14.0N 118.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W    45 KT
 120HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W    45 KT
  
  
 $$