851 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 300236
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
 800 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016
 
 Lester is a powerful category 4 hurricane.  The eye of the
 hurricane, which is now about 20 n mi wide, has expanded and cleared
 out during the last several hours.  Visible satellite images also
 indicate that mesovorticies exist within the eye.  The convective
 pattern has been very symmetric, and the hurricane continues to have
 an annular appearance in satellite images. The latest Dvorak
 classifications from TAFB and SAB were 6.5/127 kt and 5.5/102 kt,
 respectively.  Based on these estimates and automated Dvorak values
 from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed
 is raised a little to 120 kt.  Lester is estimated to have
 strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt during the past 24
 hours.
 
 The major hurricane is likely near its peak intensity, but
 fluctuations in strength are possible in the short term.  Beyond
 that time, marginally warm sea surface temperatures and a stable air
 mass suggest that Lester will likely weaken gradually during the
 next several days.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
 previous one and is fairly close to the intensity model consensus.
 
 Lester continues to move due westward about 12 kt on the south
 side of a strong mid-level high pressure system.  A continued
 westward track at about the same forward speed is predicted during
 the next few days while the system remains to the south of the
 ridge. After that time, a slight turn toward the west-northwest is
 likely due to some interaction with another tropical cyclone,
 Madeline, to its west-southwest.  The models remain tightly
 clustered, and the NHC official track forecast lies near the middle
 of the guidance envelope.  This forecast takes Lester close to the
 Hawaiian Islands in about 5 days.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0300Z 18.1N 131.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 18.2N 133.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  31/0000Z 18.2N 136.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  31/1200Z 18.3N 138.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  01/0000Z 18.3N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  02/0000Z 19.0N 145.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  03/0000Z 20.3N 149.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  04/0000Z 22.0N 154.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi