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 538 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 282035
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016
 
 The cloud pattern has not changed very much during the day and the
 convection has been fluctuating in intensity. Occasionally, an eye
 feature has been observed on conventional imagery. Dvorak estimates,
 both objective and subjective, have not changed since this morning
 and still support an initial intensity of 75 kt.
 
 The shear environment appears to be favorable for Lester to
 intensify, but SSTs along the hurricane track are decreasing
 slightly. Given these two opposing factors, the NHC forecast
 calls for no change in intensity during the next 5 days. This
 forecast follows very closely the intensity consensus model.
 
 Lester is moving westward or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is
 embedded within a deep layer of easterly flow on the south side of a
 persistent subtropical ridge across the Pacific. Given the well
 established steering flow, the track guidance continues to be
 tightly packed, and this increases the confidence in the future
 motion of the hurricane. The NHC forecast is very similar to the
 previous one and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus
 TVCN.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/2100Z 17.8N 124.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  30/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  30/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  31/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  01/1800Z 18.5N 143.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  02/1800Z 19.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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