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 155 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 270850
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016
 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016
 
 Satellite imagery shows that Lester is continuing to intensity, with
 an eye gradually becoming better defined inside a central dense
 overcast.  Various subjective and objective satellite intensity
 estimates are near 75 kt, and that value is the initial intensity
 for this advisory. The hurricane has good cirrus outflow in the
 northwestern semicircle.
 
 The initial motion is now 280/9.  Lester is south of a strong
 deep-layer subtropical ridge, and the dynamical models forecast
 this feature to build westward to the north of the hurricane through
 the forecast period.  The forecast guidance remains tightly
 clustered around an almost due west motion with an increase in
 forward speed during the next several days. The new forecast track
 is an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the
 guidance envelope.
 
 Lester is expected to remain in a low-shear environment during the
 forecast period, so the main external factors controlling the
 intensity will be sea surface temperatures and possible dry air
 entrainment.  During the first 48 hours or so, the hurricane will be
 over generally warm water.  Based on current trends, this part of
 the intensity forecast has been raised significantly from the
 previous advisory and calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt. After
 48 hours, a combination of slightly cooler water and dry air
 entrainment should cause a gradual weakening.  Overall, the new
 intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0900Z 17.9N 117.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 18.0N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 18.1N 121.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 18.4N 126.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z 18.5N 132.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  31/0600Z 18.5N 137.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  01/0600Z 18.0N 142.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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