384 
 WTPA41 PHFO 061432
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
 500 AM HST TUE SEP 06 2016
 
 GOES-15 imagery continues to show Tropical Storm Lester with a
 partly exposed low-level circulation center. The higher cloud tops
 have rotated around to the west side of the system since last
 evening. The subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from
 PHFO was 2.5/35 kt and from SAB it was 1.5/25 kt. JTWC has been
 analyzing the cyclone as subtropical. Intensity estimates have been
 erratic, probably since the system is beginning to undergo
 extratropical transition. We have kept the initial intensity at 50
 kt.  We have had no recent scatterometer passes, so confidence in
 the initial intensity is low.
  
 The initial motion is 350/10 kt. The cyclone lies between a trough
 aloft centered from near 48N 175E to 30N 170E and a broad ridge
 aloft centered from near 39N 140W TO 37N 160W. A jet stream runs
 from 30N 180W to 45N 170W. Lester will be steered by the flow
 between the trough and the ridge. The cyclone will continue moving
 north at about the same speed for the next 12 hours. As the
 trough aloft moves east at 10 to 15 kt, the steering flow over
 Lester will shift out of the southwest and strengthen. Lester
 will curve toward the north northeast tonight, then accelerate
 toward the northeast on Wednesday. The latest forecast track closely
 follows the previous one, and lies close to the global models as
 well as the TVCN consensus guidance. The Ocean Prediction Center
 provided input for cyclone as it becomes post-tropical.
  
 Most of the intensity guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone
 will remain near its current intensity through 24 hours. Some of
 the guidance keeps Lester near its current intensity for 24 hours
 beyond that. In collaboration with OPC we have the cyclone
 gradually weakening beyond 24 hours as it transitions to a
 post-tropical extratropical low Wednesday afternoon. 
 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/1500Z 33.2N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  07/0000Z 35.0N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  07/1200Z 37.5N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  08/0000Z 40.5N 163.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  08/1200Z 44.0N 159.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Donaldson