748 
 WTPA41 PHFO 050910
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  47
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
 1100 PM HST SUN SEP 04 2016
  
 Lester was completely devoid of deep convection at 0600 UTC.
 However, small pockets of cumulonimbus clouds have redeveloped in
 the northwestern semicircle during the past couple of hours. Cloud
 tops of the thunderstorms are estimated to be near 36 thousand feet.
 Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler ocean
 temperatures are likely the main contributers of Lester's weakening
 trend.  The latest subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
 are 2.5/35 kt from PHFO and SAB, while JTWC indicated Lester was no 
 longer classifiable. The latest CIMSS ADT estimate is also 2.5/35
 kt. Based on the current appearance of Lester in satellite imagery
 and these intensity estimates, we have lowered the initial intensity
 to 40 kt for this advisory. 
  
 The initial motion for this advisory is 320/16 kt. The latest track
 guidance remains tightly clustered, taking Lester along a
 northwestward path through the next 24 hours, followed by gradual
 slowing and a northward turn during the 36 to 48 hour time frame.
 Lester is then forecast to accelerate northeast from days 3 through
 4, followed by absorption by a larger extratropical system on day 5.
 Lester is currently being steered by the subtropical ridge located
 northeast of the system and an upper level trough located to the
 west. The latest forecast track closely follows the previous one,
 and lies close to the IVCN and GFEX consensus guidance. The Ocean
 Prediction Center provided input for the 72 and 96 hour positions.
  
 Most of the intensity guidance indicates that the tropical cyclone
 will remain near its current intensity through 72 hours, with slow
 weakening by day 4. The latest intensity forecast follows along with
 this, keeping the system at it present intensity through day 3.
 Beyond 48 hours, Lester is forecast to transition to an
 extra-tropical gale low over the North Pacific Ocean in around 72
 hours. This intensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS and
 the IVCN consensus guidance.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/0900Z 27.9N 162.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  05/1800Z 29.4N 164.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  06/0600Z 31.4N 165.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  06/1800Z 33.3N 165.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  07/0600Z 35.4N 165.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  08/0600Z 41.5N 162.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  09/0600Z 48.0N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston