183
WTPA41 PHFO 040918 CCA
TCDCP1
TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 43...corrected
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
1100 PM HST SAT SEP 03 2016
Lester is nearly devoid of deep convection this evening due to
the hostile impacts of strong environmental vertical wind shear.
The most recent subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
range from 3.0/45 kt from SAB to 3.5/55 kt from PHFO and JTWC. The
latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 2.9/43 kt. Based on the degraded
appearance of Lester in satellite imagery and these intensity
estimates, we have downgraded Lester to a 55 kt Tropical Storm.
The initial motion for this advisory is 295/13 kt. As with previous
runs, the latest track guidance remains tightly clustered, taking
Lester along a northwestward path through day 2, followed by
gradual slowing and a northward turn on day 3. Lester is then
then steered northeastward on days 4 and 5. Lester is currently
being steered by the subtropical ridge north of latitude 30N.
However, a weakness in this ridge due to an upper level trough
northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands will cause the tropical
cyclone to move northwestward and then northward. The latest
forecast track closely follows the previous one, except for slight
nudging to the TVCN and GFEX consensus guidance. The Ocean
Prediction Center coordinated the 4 and 5 day positions.
All intensity guidance shows Lester weakening through day 5 as this
system passes over cooler water and the current 15 to 20 kt of
southwesterly shear increases. Like the previous advisory, the
global models, notably GFS, keep Lester stronger through day 3 than
HWRF or GFDL. The forecast calls for Lester to weaken slowly
through day 2, followed by gradual weakening from days 3 through 5.
This closely follows the latest SHIPS and the IVCN consensus
guidance.
Large and dangerous surf is expected through early Sunday morning
across exposed shores in the main Hawaiian Islands. Refer to the
latest coastal hazard message (CFWHFO) from the National Weather
Service in Honolulu, HI for additional information.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 23.3N 158.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 24.7N 159.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 26.9N 162.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 29.1N 164.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 31.0N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 36.0N 165.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 44.5N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z 49.5N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Houston
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