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 183 
 WTPA41 PHFO 040918 CCA
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  43...corrected
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
 1100 PM HST SAT SEP 03 2016
  
 Lester is nearly devoid of deep convection this evening due to
 the hostile impacts of strong environmental vertical wind shear.
 The most recent subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates 
 range from 3.0/45 kt from SAB to 3.5/55 kt from PHFO and JTWC. The
 latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 2.9/43 kt. Based on the degraded
 appearance of Lester in satellite imagery and these intensity 
 estimates, we have downgraded Lester to a 55 kt Tropical Storm. 
  
 The initial motion for this advisory is 295/13 kt. As with previous
 runs, the latest track guidance remains tightly clustered, taking 
 Lester along a northwestward path through day 2, followed by 
 gradual slowing and a northward turn on day 3. Lester is then 
 then steered northeastward on days 4 and 5. Lester is currently
 being steered by the subtropical ridge north of latitude 30N.
 However, a weakness in this ridge due to an upper level trough 
 northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands will cause the tropical
 cyclone to move northwestward and then northward. The latest
 forecast track closely follows the previous one, except for slight
 nudging to the TVCN and GFEX consensus guidance. The Ocean 
 Prediction Center coordinated the 4 and 5 day positions.
  
 All intensity guidance shows Lester weakening through day 5 as this
 system passes over cooler water and the current 15 to 20 kt of
 southwesterly shear increases. Like the previous advisory, the 
 global models, notably GFS, keep Lester stronger through day 3 than 
 HWRF or GFDL. The forecast calls for Lester to weaken slowly 
 through day 2, followed by gradual weakening from days 3 through 5. 
 This closely follows the latest SHIPS and the IVCN consensus 
 guidance.
  
 Large and dangerous surf is expected through early Sunday morning 
 across exposed shores in the main Hawaiian Islands. Refer to the 
 latest coastal hazard message (CFWHFO) from the National Weather 
 Service in Honolulu, HI for additional information.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/0900Z 23.3N 158.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 24.7N 159.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 26.9N 162.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 29.1N 164.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z 31.0N 165.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  07/0600Z 36.0N 165.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  08/0600Z 44.5N 157.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  09/0600Z 49.5N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston
 
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