119 
 WTPA41 PHFO 031456
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
 500 AM HST SAT SEP 03 2016
  
 Lester is becoming increasingly influenced by southwesterly
 vertical wind shear as evident in satellite animations, making the
 low level circulation center (LLCC) difficult to find. Thankfully,
 the U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft sampled the system
 through much of the night, and was very helpful in finding the LLCC
 of Lester. The hurricane hunters found multiple areas with SFMR
 winds of 80+ knots when flying the system. Additionally, a 96 knot
 flight level wind which reduces to 86 knots at the surface was
 found at 03/0925Z. Therefore the initial intensity will be set at 85
 knots for the 15Z advisory. This agrees well with a blend of the
 Dvorak classifications from PHFO, SAB and JTWC, which ranged from
 4.5/77 knots to 5.0/90 knots. Another reconnaissance aircraft is
 scheduled to investigate the storm later this morning. 
 
 The initial motion is toward the west-northwest at 14 knots. This
 motion is expected to continue today as Lester continues to be
 steered by a deep layered ridging to the north of the system and
 an upper level trough near 160W. Lester will begin to round the
 southwestern periphery of the deep layered ridge tonight, while an
 upper level trough approaches Midway Atoll. As a result, Lester
 should change course to a more northwesterly track through 72 hours,
 then move toward the north and northeast through 120 hours in
 between the deep layered ridge to the east and the upper trough
 moving in from the west. The official CPHC track is very close to
 the previous advisory through 72 hours, with an increase in forward
 speed to more closely match the latest model guidance beyond 72
 hours.
  
 Lester is expected to gradually weaken over the next couple days
 due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear as it moves over
 marginal 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The official
 intensity forecast is nearly a duplicate of the previous advisory,
 and is closely aligned with the latest SHIPS and IVCN guidance. The
 forecast calls for Lester to weaken into a tropical storm on Sunday
 or Sunday night, with an extratropical transition expected early
 next week as Lester becomes absorbed into a large mid-latitude
 trough and moves over increasingly unfavorable SSTs.
  
 The Hurricane Watch has been cancelled for all of the Hawaiian
 Islands as Lester continues to closely follow a tightly clustered
 suite of model guidance, just to the north of the state. Despite
 the expectation that hurricane or tropical storm conditions will
 remain just north of the Islands, large and dangerous surf is
 expected through the weekend. Refer to the latest coastal hazard
 message (CFWHFO) from the National Weather Service in Honolulu, HI
 for additional information.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/1500Z 21.8N 153.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 22.7N 155.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 24.2N 158.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 26.1N 161.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 28.2N 163.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 32.4N 165.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 37.0N 165.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 43.5N 159.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Jelsema/R Ballard