018 
 WTPA41 PHFO 020905
 TCDCP1
 
 HURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132016
 1100 PM HST THU SEP 01 2016
  
 Latest satellite images show that Lester is a strong and
 well-organized hurricane lacking banding features, with a ring of
 strong convection completely encircling the well-defined eye.
 Reconnaissance aircraft from the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
 Squadron has been flying through Lester this evening, and found
 maximum flight level winds near 110 kt, and a central pressure near
 963 mb, supporting an initial intensity of 100 kt for this advisory.
 For comparison, all the fix agencies derived a data-T of 5.0/90 kt
 and a current intensity of 6.0/115 kt.
 
 The initial motion vector for this advisory is 285/12 kt, with
 Lester tracking toward the west-northwest along the southern flank
 of a low- to mid-level ridge. Meanwhile, in the upper levels, Lester
 lies squarely between a high-level anticyclone to the east and a
 persistent trough near Hawaii, in an area of southerly flow aloft.
 These steering features will prevail through the forecast period,
 keeping Lester on a west-northwest track. The tightly-clustered 00Z
 model guidance had the benefit of extra data supplied by a G-V
 synoptic surveillance mission conducted earlier today, and remains
 consistent with previous runs and the ongoing forecast. The official
 track forecast is essentially an update of the previous, and lies
 close to the TVCN and GFEX, but to the right of the GFS ensemble
 mean. 
 
 The updated intensity forecast is also very close to the previous,
 and the forecast philosophy remains the same. Lester has likely
 peaked in intensity, and all the intensity guidance depicts a
 weakening trend through the forecast period. Initially, some of
 that weakening may be due to a temporary decrease in water
 temperatures, as Lester is currently tracking over the area where
 Hurricane Madeline rapidly intensified earlier this week. Overall,
 the weakening trend is based on persistent and gradually increasing
 vertical wind shear supplied by the high-level trough near Hawaii,
 although significantly decreasing water temperatures on day 4 and 5
 will contribute as well. The official intensity forecast closely
 follows the LGEM and SHIPS guidance. 
 
 A Hurricane Watch remains in place for portions of the main Hawaiian
 Islands as the official forecast brings the system very close to the
 islands. Although forecast model guidance has been stable for the
 past couple of days, and the official forecast keeps the center
 of Lester offshore of the islands, a small deviation from the
 official forecast track could bring profound impacts to Hawaii.
 Users are also reminded that impacts from hurricanes can occur well
 away from the center. 
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0900Z 19.1N 147.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 19.7N 149.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 20.7N 151.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  03/1800Z 21.7N 154.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  04/0600Z 22.9N 157.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  05/0600Z 25.8N 162.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  06/0600Z 29.9N 165.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  07/0600Z 34.5N 167.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard