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 986 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 130830
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT WED OCT 13 2004
  
 RADAR IMAGERY FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO INDICATES THAT LESTER RETAINS A
 SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED CIRCULATION...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY
 SHOWS CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C JUST EAST OF THE
 CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45
 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT
 FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/7.  LESTER IS MOVING
 ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 20N-
 21N...AND IS NORTHEAST OF A LARGE BUT POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF
 DISTURBED WEATHER.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO HOLD
 FOR 24-48 HR...THEN STRENGTHEN WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR
 THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP LESTER
 ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR 24-48 HR...FOLLOWED
 BY A WESTWARD MOTION FROM 48-96 HR.  AFTER 96 HR...LESTER MAY
 APPROACH THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WOULD AGAIN ALLOW A
 MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  WHILE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL
 MOTION...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN JUST HOW FAR NORTH LESTER WILL
 TRACK BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD DUE TO HOW THEY HANDLE INTERACTION
 BETWEEN LESTER AND THE DISTURBANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
 NUDGED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
 NOGAPS AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.  THE TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER
 MOVING PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR ABOUT 24 HR BEFORE IT
 GRADUALLY GETS FARTHER AWAY.  HOWEVER...ANY MOTION NORTH OF THE
 FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE.
  
 LESTER IS EXPERIENCING LIGHT-MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE
 MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY PERSIST
 FOR 48 HR BEFORE DECREASING.  SINCE LESTER HAS STRENGTHENED DESPITE
 THE SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR
 48 HR...WITH THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE SHEAR
 DIMINISHES.  THIS BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL.  LESTER WILL
 LIKELY REMAIN A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THUS IT
 WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...INCLUDING
 THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IN THE 72-120
 HR TIMEFRAME WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT.
  
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0900Z 16.8N 100.6W    45 KT
  12HR VT     13/1800Z 17.1N 101.4W    50 KT
  24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.2N 102.2W    55 KT
  36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.2N 103.0W    60 KT
  48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.2N 104.1W    65 KT
  72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 106.5W    70 KT
  96HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N 108.5W    70 KT
 120HR VT     18/0600Z 19.0N 110.5W    65 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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