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 913 
 WTNT43 KNHC 132036
 TCDAT3
 
 Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number  70
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018
 
 After a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become
 post-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing
 to the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and
 interaction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of
 the cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal,
 reporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central
 and northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range,
 which is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is
 now a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a
 partial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite
 radar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and
 Leslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over
 or just north of Spain by late Sunday.
 
 Leslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt.
 Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward
 direction for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just
 south of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is
 consistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model
 guidance.
 
 The meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling
 hazards information for their respective countries via local weather
 products. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory
 on this system.
 
 
 Key Messages:
 
 1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to
 portions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical
 cyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of
 northwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday.
 
 2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1
 to 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)
 across portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash
 flooding.
 
 3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should
 refer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and
 Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to
 products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/2100Z 40.5N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  12H  14/0600Z 43.0N   4.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND
  24H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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