376 
 WTNT43 KNHC 120911
 TCDAT3
 
 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  64
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018
 
 Leslie has changed little in organization since the last advisory.
 The eye is currently not apparent in conventional satellite imagery,
 although recent microwave overpasses indicate at least a partial
 eyewall is present under the overcast.  Satellite intensity
 estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity is held at
 80 kt.
 
 The initial motion is now 065/24.  The guidance is in good
 agreement that this general motion should continue for 24 h or so.
 After that, there is a major model divergence.  The GFS, ECMWF, and
 the various consensus models now show a continued east-northeast
 motion until landfall in Portugal or Spain.  On the other hand, the
 UKMET, UK ensemble mean, and Canadian models show a turn toward the
 south and then back to the west.  Since the previous forecast showed
 a southward and westward turn, the new forecast track will also
 follow this scenario.  However, it is shifted well to the east of
 the previous track due to the forecasts of the other models.
 Needless to say, the latter portion of the track forecast is low
 confidence.
 
 Leslie should gradually weaken as it approaches Madeira Island
 during the next 24-36 h.  After that, the intensity forecast is
 dependent on what track the cyclone takes.  If it follows the
 GFS/ECMWF scenario, the system would likely make landfall on the
 Iberian peninsula and quickly dissipate.  If it follows the UKMET
 scenario, a combination of shear, cool water, and dry air
 entrainment should cause weakening.  Since the track forecast is
 closer to the UKMET scenario, the intensity forecast follows the
 previous forecast in having Leslie decay to a post-tropical low by
 72 h.  However, this is also a low confidence forecast due to the
 uncertainties in the track forecast.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/0900Z 31.9N  31.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z 33.1N  26.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  13/0600Z 34.2N  20.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  13/1800Z 34.6N  15.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  14/0600Z 34.0N  13.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  15/0600Z 32.0N  12.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  16/0600Z 30.0N  13.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  17/0600Z 28.0N  18.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven