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 592 
 WTNT43 KNHC 111444
 TCDAT3
 
 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  61
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018
 
 Leslie's structure has remained steady since last night. The
 hurricane has a ragged banding eye surrounded by a somewhat patchy
 central dense overcast. Recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB
 and SAB are unchanged, and still support an initial intensity of
 70 kt.
 
 For days now, it has been clear that Leslie will accelerate
 east-northeastward on the south side of a mid-latitude trough
 moving across the North Atlantic. That acceleration is well underway
 now, and the initial motion estimate is 060/14 kt. It has been
 unclear, however, when (or if) Leslie could separate from this
 trough and begin to drift southward over the eastern Atlantic. The
 model spread has remarkably increased since yesterday, and nearly
 1/3 of the members of the most recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs no
 longer forecast Leslie to separate from the trough at all, instead
 showing the cyclone approaching western Europe as an extratropical
 low. Even the deterministic model spread has increased, and the
 two NOAA regional hurricane models, the HWRF and HMON, are nearly
 2300 miles apart at day 5. Through 48 h, the official track forecast
 is very similar to the previous advisory, but it has been adjusted
 eastward beyond that time, to bring it closer to the most recent
 deterministic multi-model consensus. Confidence in the track
 forecast is not high at 72 h and beyond, and it's possible that
 large changes could still be required to future advisories.
 
 Leslie should remain in a generally favorable environment for
 strengthening during the next 24-36 h, and slight intensification
 is still expected, though the official intensity forecast is now on
 the high side of the guidance through this period. By 48 h and
 onward, Leslie will be moving into a far more stable environment
 and over cooler waters, so steady weakening is anticipated.  If
 Leslie follows a track similar to the NHC forecast, it will likely
 become a weak post-tropical low within 96 h. However, if Leslie
 undergoes extratropical transition, its worth noting that the
 maximum winds associated with the cyclone would likely be higher
 than indicated here.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/1500Z 29.1N  38.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 30.3N  35.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  12/1200Z 31.7N  30.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  13/0000Z 32.8N  24.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  13/1200Z 33.2N  20.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  14/1200Z 31.3N  17.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  15/1200Z 29.1N  19.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  16/1200Z 27.5N  24.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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