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 200 
 WTNT43 KNHC 102042
 TCDAT3
 
 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  58
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018
 
 Leslie has held nearly steady since this morning. Recent microwave
 data indicate that the cyclone still has a fairly well-defined
 inner-core that has persisted, though the deepest convection has
 fluctuated since last night. Satellite intensity estimates have
 fluctuated with the convection, but still support an initial value
 of 65 kt for this advisory. The last few IR and visible images
 before sunset suggest that Leslie may be developing a banding eye,
 and it's possible the intensity estimate is a little conservative.
 
 The track uncertainty is hopefully beginning to decrease a little.
 The most recent GFS and ECMWF ensembles are converging on a solution
 where Leslie accelerates east-northeastward on the south side of a
 mid-latitude trough, before separating from the trough over the
 weekend. The cyclone could then turn southward, and eventually back
 westward as a much weaker tropical cyclone or remnant low. This is
 generally consistent with previous NHC forecasts, so no large
 changes were required to the NHC forecast which is heavily based on
 the HFIP Corrected Consensus.
 
 Leslie is still expected to strengthen soon, and there has been no
 significant change to the intensity forecast. By 72 h, if not
 sooner, the hurricane will begin to encounter colder ocean waters
 and high shear, which should cause it to weaken. If Leslie follows
 the forecast track, it is possible that the system could become a
 post-tropical remnant low by early next week, and this is forecast
 by some of the global models. However, this is not explicitly shown
 in the NHC forecast and Leslie's strength and status early next week
 will likely heavily depend on its track at that time. The official
 forecast is close to the intensity consensus at all forecast hours,
 and the intensity model spread is not very large.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/2100Z 27.8N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 28.0N  40.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 29.0N  38.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 30.4N  33.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 31.5N  28.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z 32.0N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  14/1800Z 30.0N  21.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  15/1800Z 27.0N  26.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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