368 
 WTNT43 KNHC 101446
 TCDAT3
 
 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  57
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018
 
 Leslie has continued to get better organized this morning, and
 several recent microwave overpasses indicate that the hurricane is
 maintaining a well-defined mid-level eye.  However, objective and
 subjective intensity estimates have not increased, so the intensity
 has been held at 65 kt.  All of the intensity guidance forecasts
 that Leslie will resume intensifying later today.  Given that the
 hurricane is located in a low shear environment and crossing over
 the warmest waters it has encountered in days, this seems very
 likely.  No change was made to the intensity forecast through 48 h.
 Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is still tied to the track
 forecast, and the farther south and west Leslie remains, the
 stronger it will likely be.  Extratropical transition also can not
 be ruled out, which would likely result in a higher intensity by day
 5 that indicated by the NHC forecast. The official intensity
 forecast is still close to the model consensus through day 5, but a
 large range of possibilities exists by that time, from Leslie
 becoming a weak post-tropical low, to maintaining near hurricane
 strength.
 
 The spread in the track guidance is still very large and confidence
 in the track forecast is low.  The most recent ECMWF ensemble has a
 5-day spread of over 1500 n mi, while the 5-day GFS ensemble spread
 is over 1300 n mi.  Leslie is forecast to slow down today and turn
 toward the east-northeast.  A faster motion in that direction is
 anticipated by tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough approaches from
 the northwest.  Leslie will then either undergo extratropical
 transition and lift northward, continue westward and become a
 remnant low, or separate from the trough and turn back west.  The
 NHC forecast is near the track consensus at all times and no large
 changes to the forecast were made since the future track of the
 cyclone has not become more clear.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/1500Z 27.8N  42.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 27.8N  41.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 28.4N  39.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z 29.6N  36.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 30.7N  31.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  13/1200Z 31.5N  23.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  14/1200Z 29.5N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  15/1200Z 27.0N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky