752 
 WTNT43 KNHC 100243
 TCDAT3
 
 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  55
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018
 
 Satellite and microwave data indicate that Leslie has become a
 hurricane again, almost exactly a week after it did the first time.
 A WindSat pass from earlier today showed the development of an eye
 feature, and with the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB at
 hurricane strength, the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt.  The
 latest GOES-16 proxy visible imagery suggests that a ragged eye has
 formed, although the eyewall is open on the southwestern side.
 
 Leslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward
 at 8 kt.  The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day
 or so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude
 trough until Friday.  After that time, there is a ginormous spread
 in the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from
 Ireland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the
 southwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.
 Compared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing
 Leslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest
 deterministic runs as well.  Something tells me that Leslie has at
 least one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows
 this trend, but is very low confidence.
 
 With fairly low shear and marginally warm waters for the next day
 or two, there is no reason to expect that Leslie won't continue to
 intensify.  Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, with the
 normally conservative ECMWF and GFS models even suggesting that
 Leslie becomes a category 2 hurricane in a couple of days.  Most of
 the rest of the guidance is lower than those models, but the
 intensity forecast is shaded in the direction of the ECMWF/GFS,
 and is higher than the last NHC prediction.  After that time, an
 increase in shear and lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It
 is even possible it will become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5,
 but I'm not going to show that at this time since I was too
 premature last night in this transition.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0300Z 29.5N  42.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 28.4N  42.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 28.0N  41.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 28.6N  39.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  12/0000Z 29.9N  36.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  13/0000Z 32.2N  27.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  14/0000Z 32.0N  21.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  15/0000Z 30.0N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake