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 492 
 WTNT43 KNHC 070249
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  43
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018
 
 Leslie's convective organization has changed little since the
 previous advisory, with a small burst of deep convection having
 developed just southeast of the center. The intensity remains at 50
 kt based on an average of current intensity estimates from TAFB and
 SAB, which is supported by a partial ASCAT pass that showed several
 45-kt surface wind vectors well east of the missed low-level center.
 
 The initial motion estimate is easterly or 095/11 kt. Leslie is
 forecast to remain embedded in weak mid-latitude west-northwesterly
 flow for the next few days, which should keep the cyclone moving
 toward the east-southeast over warmer water. By 72 h and beyond,  a
 stronger shortwave trough is forecast to dig to the west of Leslie,
 lifting the cyclone out toward the east and northeast. The new NHC
 forecast track is similar to, but a slower than, the previous
 advisory track, but not as slow as the consensus models.
 
 Leslie is expected to weaken slightly during the next 36 h as the
 cyclone entrains some drier air.  After that time, however, Leslie
 is expected to move over warmer waters with SSTs reaching more than
 25 deg C by 48 h and beyond while the shear is forecast to remain
 low. As a result, some modest re-strengthening is forecast on days
 2-5. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN
 intensity consensus model.
 
 Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
 next few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,
 Bermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.
 Please consult products from your local weather office as these
 conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  07/0300Z 37.3N  52.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  07/1200Z 36.8N  51.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  08/0000Z 36.2N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  08/1200Z 35.4N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  09/0000Z 34.2N  43.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  10/0000Z 30.9N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  11/0000Z 28.7N  33.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  12/0000Z 29.5N  28.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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