255 
 WTNT43 KNHC 052040
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  38
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 500 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018
 
 Leslie is currently maintaining a small central convective feature
 and an outer convective band in the southeastern semicircle.  The
 various satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so
 the initial intensity is nudged downward to 50 kt.  This is still a
 little above the estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite
 consensus.  While no data was available from the inner core,
 scatterometer overpasses this morning suggests that Leslie has
 changed little in size since last night.
 
 Leslie has now slowed its forward motion and is starting to turn
 more eastward, with an initial motion of 030/3.  A turn to the east
 is expected during the next 24 h, followed by a turn toward the
 east-southeast by 36 h as Leslie encounters the southern edge of the
 mid-latitude westerlies.  A general motion toward the east-southeast
 or southeast should then continue for the remainder of the forecast
 period.  The latest guidance again shifted southward, and the new
 forecast track, which is in best agreement with the TVCN consensus
 model, is shifted to the south of the previous track
 
 The forecast track again takes Leslie over cooler waters around day
 2, into slightly stronger shear around day 3, and over warmer
 water with decreasing shear around days 4-5.  However, the structure
 of Leslie is not currently conducive for rapid changes in intensity
 either up or down.  Thus, the intensity forecast, which has only
 minor tweaks from the previous forecast, follows the trend of the
 previous forecast and the guidance in showing gradual weakening near
 48 h, followed by slight intensification near 96-120 h.
 
 Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
 next few days across the eastern coast of the United States,
 Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic
 Canada. Please consult products from your local weather office as
 these conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/2100Z 36.2N  58.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  06/0600Z 36.7N  57.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  06/1800Z 36.7N  55.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  07/0600Z 36.4N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  07/1800Z 35.8N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  08/1800Z 34.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  09/1800Z 31.5N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  10/1800Z 30.0N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven