101 
 WTNT43 KNHC 050232
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  35
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018
 
 Leslie lacks an inner core and now consists of a vigorous large
 circulation with small outer bands of shallow to moderate
 convection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to yield a
 lower intensity, and the winds have been reduced to 55 kt in this
 advisory based on a recent ASCAT pass. The shear does not appear to
 be a problem for Leslie, and the cyclone is forecast to be moving
 over SSTs which appear to not be cool enough to result in
 significant weakening. In fact, the average of the intensity
 guidance suggests that Leslie basically will be a 50-kt cyclone
 through the forecast period and so does the NHC forecast.
 
 Leslie is moving northward or 350 degrees at 10 kt steered by the
 southerly flow on the western edge of the subtropical ridge. In
 about 24 to 36 hours, the storm will encounter the mid-latitude
 westerlies, and this flow pattern will force Leslie to make a sharp
 turn to the east and even to the east-southeast with no change in
 forward speed.  Track guidance is in extremely good agreement with
 this solution for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the models
 vary significantly in speed, but since the cyclone will be embedded
 in the westerlies, the NHC forecast maintains the eastward
 progression of Leslie as indicated in the previous forecast.
 
 Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
 next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
 Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These
 swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
 and Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your
 local weather office as these conditions could cause life-
 threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 34.9N  57.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 36.2N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 37.2N  57.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 37.5N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 37.5N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 36.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 34.5N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 33.0N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila