546 
 WTNT43 KNHC 040848
 TCDAT3
 
 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  32
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018
 
 Leslie has shown no appreciable changes in its structure during the
 past several hours, and it continues to be a little thin on
 convection within its eyewall.  Another more impressive band of
 convection extends nearly more than 120 n mi northwest of the
 center of the ragged eye.  The initial intensity remains 70 kt for
 this advisory, mainly based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from
 TAFB and SAB and an earlier SATCON estimate.  Leslie's center has
 reached sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius, and these
 marginal water temperatures are likely to cause a gradual decrease
 in the cyclone's winds during the next several days.  The new NHC
 intensity forecast is mainly just an update to the previous
 forecast, largely following the HCCA guidance and the ICON
 intensity consensus.
 
 Leslie continues to move northward, or 350/7 kt, between a
 shortwave trough south of Nova Scotia and a mid-level ridge over
 the central Atlantic.  This northward motion should continue for
 the next 36 hours before Leslie becomes trapped between two
 mid-level highs and is isolated from the mid-latitude westerlies to
 the north, thus causing its forward motion to nearly stall by 48
 hours.  By days 3 through 5, Leslie should feel enough influence
 from the westerlies and an approaching cold front to cause it to
 move a bit faster toward the east or east-southeast over the north
 Atlantic.  Like the intensity forecast, no major changes were
 required to the official track forecast, which is merely an update
 to the previous NHC prediction.
 
 Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the
 next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,
 Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These
 swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
 and Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your
 local weather office as these conditions could cause
 life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0900Z 31.4N  57.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 33.0N  57.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 35.1N  58.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 36.3N  58.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z 36.8N  57.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  07/0600Z 36.3N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  08/0600Z 35.5N  51.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  09/0600Z 34.5N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg