368 
 WTNT43 KNHC 031432
 TCDAT3
 
 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number  29
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018
 
 Leslie continues to slowly strengthen.  Satellite images indicate
 that the deep convection has been gradually increasing in coverage
 and become more symmetric around the large ragged eye of the
 hurricane.  An average of the latest Dvorak classifications from
 TAFB and SAB support increasing the initial wind speed to 70 kt.
 Leslie still has a little more time to strengthen as it should
 remain over waters warmer than 26 deg C and in favorable
 atmospheric conditions for about another day.  Thereafter, the
 hurricane is expected to move over progressively cooler water,
 which should induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity
 forecast lies closest to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.
 
 The hurricane has come to a stall, as expected, in very weak
 steering currents.  The combination of a shortwave trough moving
 off the New England coast and a building ridge to the southeast of
 Leslie should cause the hurricane to begin moving northward this
 evening.  This motion with an increase in forward speed should
 continue through Friday.  By the weekend, the hurricane is expected
 to turn to the east due to a broad trough over the north Atlantic.
 The models remain in very good agreement, and little change was
 made to the previous NHC forecast track.
 
 Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the
 next day or two across the southeastern coast of the United
 States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.
 These swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New
 England and Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from
 your local weather office as these conditions could cause
 life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 29.5N  56.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 30.0N  56.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 31.6N  56.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 33.9N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 35.6N  57.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 36.9N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 37.0N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 36.7N  49.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi