005 
 WTNT43 KNHC 030235
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  27
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018
 
 Leslie has been trying to become a hurricane all day, but it is not
 one yet.  The cloud pattern has changed very little during the past
 several hours and in fact, one could make the case that is less
 organized that earlier today with no eye feature trying to form at
 this time.  However, Dvorak classifications still support an initial
 intensity of 60 kt, and this is confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass
 with winds of at least 55 kt.  Having said that, environmental
 conditions of low shear and a warm ocean favor strengthening, and
 NHC again forecasts Leslie to become a hurricane on Wednesday and
 remain one for a couple of days.  After that time, Leslie will reach
 cooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated.
 
 Leslie is moving very slowly toward the southwest or 220 degrees at
 3 kt while embedded within very light steering currents. Most of the
 global models bring an eastward-moving short wave near Leslie, and
 this flow pattern should force the cyclone to move northward for the
 next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude
 westerlies and will move eastward.  The forecast is very similar to
 the previous one and closely follows both the corrected-consensus
 HCCA and the other multi-model aids.
 
 Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow
 and Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,
 Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These
 swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England
 and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week.  Please consult products
 from your local weather office as these conditions could cause
 life-threatening surf and rip currents.
 
 The initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted
 based on recent ASCAT data.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 29.7N  56.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 29.4N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 30.0N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 31.5N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 33.8N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 36.5N  57.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 37.0N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 37.0N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila