075 
 WTNT43 KNHC 020242
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  23
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018
 
 Satellite imagery shows that the convective organization of Leslie
 has changed little during the past several hours.  The eye-like
 feature, however, has become a little more distinct and symmetric.
 The subjective and objective intensity estimates haven't changed
 though, and the initial intensity remains at 50 kt for this
 advisory.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be a southwestward drift, or
 220/4 kt.  Leslie is forecast to continue drifting generally
 southwestward through the 36-hour period in relatively weak
 mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a ridge extending
 eastward from the southeast United States to near Bermuda.
 Afterwards, an amplifying mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching
 the cyclone from the Canadian Maritimes should induce a
 north-northeastward to northeastward motion at an increasing forward
 speed.  The NHC forecast is adjusted just to the left of the
 previous forecast track beyond 36 hours to align more with the TVCN
 consensus guidance.
 
 The intensity forecast philosophy remains basically the same, this
 evening.  Strengthening is still expected during the next 36 hours
 and Leslie is likely to become a hurricane Tuesday tonight, as
 indicated by the statistical and multi-model intensity guidance.
 Near the 72-hour period, Leslie should begin a gradual weakening
 trend as the cyclone moves back over cooler oceanic temperatures
 and some invading drier mid-level air, associated with the
 aforementioned shortwave trough which stabilizes the surrounding
 environment.  The official intensity forecast is an update of the
 previous one and is close to the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus aids.
 The forecast wind radii have been adjusted based on the RVCN
 (GFS/ECMWF/HWRF) multi-model consensus.
 
 Large swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of
 the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the
 Bahamas.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
 rip currents.  Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily
 in the Bahamas Tuesday, they are expected to increase again
 Wednesday and Thursday and propagate farther southward into the
 Greater and Lesser Antilles.  Please consult products from your
 local weather office.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/0300Z 32.4N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  02/1200Z 31.3N  55.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  03/0000Z 30.2N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  03/1200Z 29.9N  56.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  04/0000Z 30.6N  56.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  05/0000Z 34.4N  55.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  06/0000Z 37.0N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  07/0000Z 37.3N  52.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts