200 
 WTNT43 KNHC 300243
 TCDAT3
 
 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  15
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018
 
 The structure of Leslie consists of a large, broken outer band
 wrapped around the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, with little
 convection west of the center.  ASCAT data recently showed 40-45 kt
 within that band, so the maximum winds will stay at 45 kt.  The
 storm should gradually move over somewhat warmer waters within a
 lighter shear environment during the next few days.  Thus gradual
 intensification is shown, similar to the model consensus.  The only
 notable change to the previous forecast is to move up the peak
 intensity close to Leslie's southernmost position before it stalls.
 It would seem that after that time, the relatively large system
 would be moving close to its previous track over its self-generated
 cooler upwelled waters, and weaken somewhat at long range.
 
 Leslie continues to move southwestward, and its initial motion is
 235/5 kt.  This storm should move slowly to the southwest through
 Sunday, then creep southward by late Monday due to steering
 partially by northerly flow from a distant ridge over the western
 Atlantic and a nearby large mid- to upper-level trough. Eventually,
 a new ridge rebuilds over the east-central Atlantic east of Leslie,
 which causes the cyclone to move to the north at a faster pace by
 day 5. As you could imagine in such a complex pattern, the models
 aren't in good agreement on how quickly the storm ejects, and this
 is a pretty uncertain forecast at long range.  Until some forecast
 scenarios become clear, the forecast will stay close to the
 corrected-consensus aids, resulting in mostly cosmetic changes to
 the last forecast.
 
 Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
 low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and
 most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through at least the
 weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
 currents.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  30/0300Z 33.9N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  30/1200Z 33.4N  52.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  01/0000Z 33.0N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  01/1200Z 32.6N  53.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  02/0000Z 32.2N  54.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  03/0000Z 31.0N  54.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  04/0000Z 31.7N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 120H  05/0000Z 34.5N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake