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 385 
 WTNT43 KNHC 240832
 TCDAT3
 
 Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
 
 Leslie has changed little overnight.  The large subtropical cyclone
 continues to produce patches of deep convection, mostly to the south
 and east of the center.  The initial intensity is again held at 35
 kt, which is near the upper end of the satellite intensity
 estimates.
 
 The subtropical storm is moving southward at 5 kt.  The steering
 currents around Leslie are expected to collapse later today and
 little overall motion is forecast during the next 12-18 hours.
 After that time, a cold front is expected to approach the system,
 and that should cause Leslie to move eastward tonight and Tuesday.
 The front is expected to merge with Leslie by Tuesday night, causing
 it to become extratropical.  While little change in intensity is
 expected during the next day or so, due to dry air and moderate
 shear, some strengthening as an extratropical low is likely due to
 baroclinic forcing.  In fact, after becoming extratropical, the
 models show Leslie merging with another frontal low to its north,
 leading to the formation of a powerful slow-moving non-tropical low
 with gale- or storm-force winds over the central Atlantic later this
 week.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/0900Z 32.6N  48.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  24/1800Z 32.6N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  25/0600Z 32.6N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  25/1800Z 32.5N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  26/0600Z 32.7N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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