322 
 WTNT43 KNHC 042105
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011
 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011
  
 WSR-88D RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LEE HAS
 BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS WELL
 INLAND NOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHER THAN THE STRONG
 BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE SURFACE
 CENTER...NARROW BANDS OF MODEST CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM OVER
 SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHICH EXTEND
 SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. SOME
 OF THESE BANDS HAVE CONTAINED DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 60-68 KT FROM
 4500-10000 FT IN 25-35 DBZ ECHOES...WITH MEAN VALUES OF ABOUT 55
 KT. ALTHOUGH THESE DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES WOULD TYPICALLY
 TRANSLATE TO SURFACE WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE WEAK ECHO RETURNS
 SUGGEST THAT HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY OCCUR IN GUSTS. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON SUSTAINED
 WIND REPORT OF 40 KT FROM THE BURAS C-MAN STATION...AND THE GUST
 DIFFERENTIAL IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT REMAINS AT 55 KT...
 WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD 50-KT GUST VALUE IN
 ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRANSIENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NOTED IN
 DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA.
  
 LEE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...
 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR
 EAST-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS
 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A
 VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS
 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT
 TO THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. BY 36 HOURS...
 A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE
 MODELS TO BREAK OFF AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THIS
 MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC INTERACTION...COUPLED WITH ABSORPTION BY A
 FRONTAL SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION LEE INTO A LARGE
 LOW-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE
 VALLEY BY DAYS 2-4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS...
 TVCN AND TVCA.
  
 ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING LEE TO
 REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM OR EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA FOR THE NEXT 36
 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN
 UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TREND WAS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
 MODEL ICON...AND INPUT FROM THE NHC TAFB UNIT.
  
 SINCE HEAVY RAINS...STRONG WINDS...AND THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE
 VALUES ARE OCCURRING VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT
 TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF LEE. THE PRIMARY
 THREAT FROM LEE WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE
 SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  04/2100Z 30.6N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  05/0600Z 30.7N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  24H  05/1800Z 31.2N  89.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  36H  06/0600Z 32.3N  88.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  06/1800Z 33.3N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  07/1800Z 34.8N  86.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  08/1800Z 36.0N  86.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART