206 
 WTNT42 KNHC 011438
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008
 1100 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008
  
 ALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION REMAINS...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
 DEEP CONVECTION FOR LAURA TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND
 THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  I RATHER LIKE THE CANADIAN
 HURRICANE CENTER'S TERM POST-TROPICAL...WHICH SIMPLY MEANS NO
 LONGER TROPICAL...TO DESCRIBE WHAT LAURA HAS BECOME. THERE IS NOT
 REALLY ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF FRONTAL STRUCTURE YET TO CONSIDER LAURA
 EXTRATROPICAL IN THE TRADITIONAL SENSE...AND SOME USERS MIGHT INFER
 A WEAK SYSTEM IF WE USED THE TERM REMNANT LOW...WHICH IS
 MOST-COMMONLY APPLIED TO DECAYING SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
 BASIN.  
  
 A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
 NEAR 40 KT...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER. A TRANSITION TO A FULLY
 EXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
 THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME REINVIGORATION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT
 OF LAURA IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS. OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...
 SHOWS THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A
 FRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR AN EXPANSION OF
 THE WIND RADII IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...BUT FOLLOWS A
 CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN CARRYING A TRACK ONLY OUT TO 72
 HOURS.
 
 FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
 FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
 HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 46.5N  46.5W    40 KT...POST-TROPICAL
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 48.9N  45.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 52.2N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 55.0N  39.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 56.0N  33.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 56.5N  20.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     05/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN