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 375 
 WTNT42 KNHC 010233
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008
 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008
  
 I WAS TEMPTED TO TERMINATE ADVISORIES ON LAURA TONIGHT SINCE
 CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
 BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. HOWEVER...LAURA CANNOT BE CALLED A
 REMNANT LOW YET AND IT IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL ENOUGH TO BE CALLED
 ONE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
 CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45
 KNOTS. LAURA IS MOVING OVER COLD WATERS AND IS BECOMING INVOLVED
 WITH COLD AIR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LAURA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL
 IN 12 HOUR OR LESS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
 INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED.
  
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE LARGE HOLE ASSOCIATED WITH
 THE CENTER IS 015 AT 14 KNOTS. LAURA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE
 NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
 AHEAD OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT
 SHOULD THEN TURN EASTWARD ADVECTED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE
 SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0300Z 43.6N  48.0W    45 KT
  12HR VT     01/1200Z 45.5N  47.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     02/0000Z 48.5N  45.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     02/1200Z 52.5N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     03/0000Z 55.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     04/0000Z 56.5N  27.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     05/0000Z 56.5N  13.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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