567 
 WTNT42 KNHC 291439
 TCDAT2
 SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008
 1100 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2008
  
 AN 0852 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER LAURA CONFIRMED THAT THE MAXIMUM
 WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KT WITHIN A SWATH LOCATED ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF THE
 CENTER.  SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS OF ST3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB
 ALSO SUPPORT THIS INITIAL INTENSITY.  A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND
 NOW CURLS ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH
 OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS BROAD AND
 ILL-DEFINED WITH SEVERAL INTERNAL SMALLER SWIRLS.  WITH THE
 IMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...A CASE COULD BE MADE THAT THE
 CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
 
 LAURA IS BEGINNING TO MAKE A MORE PRONOUNCED POLEWARD TURN AS IT
 MOVES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AZORES AND THE
 EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KYLE OVER THE CANADIAN
 MARITIMES.  A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR
 THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO BUT THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
 TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST
 DOES NOT GO AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND INSTEAD
 LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
 GFDL.  LAURA WILL LIKELY BE PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
 CURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAY 3 AND THEN ACCELERATE
 EASTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE
 BRITISH ISLES AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
 
 OCEAN WATERS ARE MARGINALLY WARM NEAR LAURA...BUT APPEAR TO BE JUST
 WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASED CONVECTION.  IF THE CONVECTION CAN
 WRAP CLOSER TO THE CENTER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE
 COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
 EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THEREFORE...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS JUST BEFORE LAURA MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY
 LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS
 RATHER UNIMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION WHEREAS
 THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS LAURA STRENGTHENING TO 80 KT BY DAY 4 OR
 5...PRIMARILY DUE TO A STRONG CONTRIBUTION FROM COLD UPPER LEVEL
 TEMPERATURES.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/1500Z 37.4N  47.8W    50 KT
  12HR VT     30/0000Z 38.1N  48.3W    55 KT
  24HR VT     30/1200Z 39.8N  48.3W    60 KT
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 41.8N  47.7W    60 KT
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 44.4N  46.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 51.5N  41.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 55.5N  30.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     04/1200Z 55.0N  15.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG/PASCH