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 231 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 160233
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
 
 Overall, Lane's cloud pattern has become a little better organized
 this evening.  Modest east-northeasterly shear, however, along with
 some drier air, appears to be undercutting the diffluent outflow
 above 300 mb and is impinging the north through northeast portion
 of the cyclone. An outer deep convective curved band, on the other
 hand, is now developing over most of the eastern half of the system.
 The surface center is also located a bit further in the northern
 edge of an expanding, colder, central dense overcast.  The initial
 intensity is increased to 45 kt, and is based on a compromise of the
 TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates (T3.0),
 and a 2205 UTC SATCON analysis (51 kt).
 
 Little change has been made to the previous intensity forecast, and
 it still shows a rapid increase of nearly 55 kt in 48 hours based on
 the Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification
 Index (DTOPS) which indicates a 67 percent chance of RI occuring
 during this particular period.  The NHC forecast is weighed heavily
 on a blend of the COAMPS-TC and the HFIP Corrected Consensus
 Approach model (HCCA), and indicates Lane intensifying into a
 category 3 hurricane in 3 days.
 
 Lane's motion is estimated to be westward, or 265/11 kt, a little
 to the left of due west, and is being steered by a broad mid-level
 ridge to its north-northwest.  The large-scale models continue to
 show the ridge weakening in 2 days in response to a southwestward
 and westward retrograding cut-off mid-level low currently located
 southwest of the Baja California coast.  At that time, the cyclone
 should gradually turn west-northwestward and continue in this
 general direction through the remaining period of the forecast.
 The official forecast is very close to the previous one, with only
 minor along-track adjustments, and sides with the HCCA and TVCN
 consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0300Z 10.4N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  16/1200Z 10.4N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  17/0000Z 10.7N 129.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  17/1200Z 11.1N 132.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  48H  18/0000Z 11.6N 135.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  20/0000Z 14.3N 145.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 120H  21/0000Z 15.2N 149.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts
 
 
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