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 131 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 150834
 TCDEP4
 
 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018
 200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
 
 Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually getting
 better organized with deep convection increasing near the center and
 in curved bands over the western semicircle.  The initial intensity
 remains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from
 TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system was a
 little stronger.
 
 The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 12
 kt.  A deep-layer ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should
 keep the system moving on a general westward path at about the same
 forward speed during the next couple of days.  After that time, the
 models suggest that a mid- to upper-level low will cut off and cause
 a break in the ridge.  This change in the flow pattern should cause
 the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest in the 3- to
 5-day time frame.  The models have generally shifted slightly to the
 left this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that
 direction.
 
 The environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to
 strengthen during the next several days with the wind shear
 expected to remain low, less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities fairly
 high, and SSTs marginally warm.  The intensity models respond to
 these favorable conditions, and all of them now show the system
 becoming a hurricane within the next few days.  The NHC intensity
 forecast follows that theme, and shows a faster rate of
 strengthening than the previous forecast.  This prediction lies
 closest to the HCCA and ICON models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0900Z 10.8N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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