131
WTPZ44 KNHC 150834
TCDEP4
Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142018
200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018
Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually getting
better organized with deep convection increasing near the center and
in curved bands over the western semicircle. The initial intensity
remains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system was a
little stronger.
The depression continues to move just south of due west at about 12
kt. A deep-layer ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should
keep the system moving on a general westward path at about the same
forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the
models suggest that a mid- to upper-level low will cut off and cause
a break in the ridge. This change in the flow pattern should cause
the tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest in the 3- to
5-day time frame. The models have generally shifted slightly to the
left this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that
direction.
The environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to
strengthen during the next several days with the wind shear
expected to remain low, less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities fairly
high, and SSTs marginally warm. The intensity models respond to
these favorable conditions, and all of them now show the system
becoming a hurricane within the next few days. The NHC intensity
forecast follows that theme, and shows a faster rate of
strengthening than the previous forecast. This prediction lies
closest to the HCCA and ICON models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 10.8N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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