WTPA42 PHFO 282047
Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number 58
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
1100 AM HST Tue Aug 28 2018
The low-cloud center of Lane remained exposed and easy to track
overnight as it moved slowly west northwest. Thunderstorms persist
northeast of the center, but the convection has slowly shifted
farther away. Visible imagery shows the low level center has become
less tightly wound. Subjective Dvorak estimates came in at 1.5/25 kt
from HFO SAB, and JTWC, and the latest CIMSS ADT was 1.9/29 kt.
Although Lane is clearly not a very strong system, a fairly tight
pressure gradient remains between Lane and a 1035 mb surface high
far northeast of the depression. I have kept Lane as a 30 kt
tropical depression for this advisory.
Our forecast reasoning remains the same. The circulation around a
low aloft near 21N 172W is producing strong southwest vertical wind
shear over Lane. The CIMSS estimate at 1800 UTC was 47 kt over Lane.
With convection shearing off to the northeast of Lane, the
depression will continue to weaken. A north-south low-level trough
is deepening near 170W and the global models are in good agreement
showing a new extratropical surface low forming within the trough by
this evening near 30N 170W.
Lane is forecast to move northwest this afternoon with a turn toward
the north northwest tonight. That motion is expected to continue as
Lane weakens to a post-tropical remnant low later today. Whatever
might be left of Lane is forecast to be absorbed within the
extratropical low developing to the north.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 19.0N 168.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 20.0N 168.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1800Z 21.5N 169.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0600Z 24.0N 170.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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