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 123 
 WTPA42 PHFO 280853
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  56
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 27 2018
  
 The last visible Himawari images of the evening along with more
 recent GOES-15 fog product images continue to depict the exposed low
 level circulation center (LLCC) of Lane tracking westward. Infrared
 imagery shows only small, scattered and short-lived puffs of deep
 convection in the northern semicircle. These are currently located
 from 50 nm NW to over 100 nm NE and E of the center. Subjective
 Dvorak current intensity estimates came in at 2.0/30 kt from HFO and
 JTWC, and 1.5/25 kt from SAB, while final T-numbers were 1.0 to 1.5
 or 25 kt across the board. The latest CIMSS ADT is also 1.5/25 kt.
 We have conservatively maintained Lane as a 30 kt tropical
 depression for this advisory, which may be generous.
  
 Initial motion for this advisory is set at 270/6 kt. A strong
 lower/mid level ridge to the north of Lane has steered the cyclone
 generally toward the WSW during the past couple of days. This will
 be changing soon, as Lane continues to approach a strong low aloft
 which water vapor imagery shows centered near 23N 172W. Model
 guidance shows Lane being picked up by a developing low-level trough
 induced by the upper trough, with the depression expected to turn NW
 then NNW during the next 36 hours. The new forecast track is similar
 to the previous track, and is on the left side of the guidance
 envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF.
  
 UW-CIMSS diagnoses almost 60 kt of vertical wind shear over Lane,
 as confirmed by satellite animations which show the tops of any
 deep convection that develops near the LLCC being quickly ripped
 away to the northeast. Very strong shear is forecast to continue
 along the forecast track of Lane during the next couple of days.
 The intensity forecast anticipates that Lane will continue to
 weaken, with the remnant low becoming absorbed within 48 hours into
 a larger extratropical low forecast to develop farther to the north.
 Unless Lane regains significant deep convection near the center
 soon, it will likely be designated as a post-tropical remnant low
 on Tuesday morning.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0900Z 18.4N 167.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 19.0N 168.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  29/0600Z 20.3N 168.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  29/1800Z 23.0N 169.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 Forecaster Jacobson
  
 
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