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 257 
 WTPA42 PHFO 271445
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  53
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 AM HST Mon Aug 27 2018
  
 Lane's low-level circulation center had been exposed for the better 
 part of the last 30 hours, as the cyclone remains in an environment 
 characterized by 40 kt of vertical wind shear. However, a recent 
 vigorous convective burst in the eastern semicircle has at least 
 partially obscured the low-level center, and convective banding has 
 increased to the southeast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates 
 trended up, but were still primarily 2.0/30 kt at the synoptic time,
 while UW-CIMSS SATCON was near 35 kt. With the improved satellite
 appearance since then, and since an ASCAT pass detected winds just
 over 30 kt on Sunday, the initial intensity for this advisory is
 increased to 35 kt, and Lane is once again a tropical storm. 
 
 The initial motion for this advisory is 270/7 kt, with Lane being 
 driven westward by a surface high to the distant northeast. This 
 motion will continue in the short-term, with Lane's forward motion 
 expected to diminish tonight as it reaches the southwestern edge of 
 the high. At the same time, increased interaction with an
 amplifying mid-level low will likely lead to a deepening shear
 profile, with the strong shear currently in the upper-levels
 spreading to the mid-levels. This should be more effective in
 interrupting Lane's low-level core, and Lane is expected to become a
 post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday. 
 
 Lane is forecast to become an extratropical low later Tuesday into 
 Wednesday as it gets wrapped up into the circulation associated
 with the mid-level low. This extratropical low could then bring
 gale force winds to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine
 National Monument as it tracks north and northwest. The updated
 track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous,
 especially in the later periods, to be better in line with GFEX. The
 intensity forecast represents a blend of regional and global model
 guidance. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/1500Z 18.9N 165.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  28/0000Z 19.0N 166.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  28/1200Z 19.6N 167.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  29/0000Z 21.0N 168.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  29/1200Z 23.2N 169.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  30/1200Z 29.0N 174.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  31/1200Z 32.0N 177.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  01/1200Z 34.6N 180.0E   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard
  
 
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