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 163 
 WTPA42 PHFO 270244
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  51
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 PM HST Sun Aug 26 2018
  
 The low-level circulation center of Lane remains exposed with
 continued bursts of deep convection pulsing in the northeast
 quadrant. Recent satellite imagery also shows some deep convection
 developing south and southwest of the circulation center. Lane
 remains in a hostile environment with UW-CIMSS vertical shear
 estimate of 47 knots impacting the system. With the continued deep
 convection persisting near the center of circulation as well as the
 latest Dvorak intensity estimates, the initial intensity for this
 advisory remains at 30 kt. An ASCAT pass at around 20Z detected wind
 speeds of 32 knots in the northwest quadrant of the system. 
  
 The initial motion for this advisory is 255/8 kt. A surface high to
 the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the
 west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low
 later tonight or Monday. Once Lane becomes post-tropical,
 redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief
 slowing in forward speed is expected late Monday and Monday night as
 the remnant low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins
 to interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming
 Lane survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is
 expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by
 Tuesday or Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to
 portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it
 tracks north and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest
 official forecast track is close to the TVCN consensus model while
 the intensity forecast is supported by global model guidance.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  27/0300Z 18.8N 163.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  27/1200Z 18.6N 164.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  28/0000Z 18.8N 166.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  28/1200Z 19.5N 166.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  29/0000Z 21.2N 167.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  30/0000Z 25.9N 170.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  31/0000Z 30.9N 174.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  01/0000Z 34.3N 179.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Burke
  
 
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