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 875 
 WTPA42 PHFO 262044
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Depression Lane Discussion Number  50
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 26 2018
  
 The low-level circulation center of Lane remains exposed with
 bursts of deep convection continuing to pulse in the northeast
 quadrant. The once powerful cyclone is in the process of becoming a
 post-tropical remnant low, as it remains embedded in a hostile
 environment, with vertical wind shear of around 40 knots impacting
 the system. The initial intensity for this advisory remains at 30 kt
 based on the latest Dvorak intensity estimates. Based on an
 overnight ASCAT pass, these winds are mainly in the northern
 semicircle of the circulation.
  
 The initial motion for this advisory is 270/9 kt. A surface high to
 the distant northeast will keep Lane moving generally toward the
 west into Monday as it devolves into a post-tropical remnant low 
 later today or tonight. Once Lane becomes post-tropical,
 redevelopment into a tropical cyclone is highly unlikely. A brief
 slowing in forward speed is expected Monday night as the remnant
 low reaches the southwestern edge of the high and begins to
 interact with a developing mid-level low to its west. Assuming Lane
 survives as a coherent feature until then, this interaction is
 expected to lead to the development of an extratropical low by
 Tuesday or Wednesday. This low could bring gale force winds to
 portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it
 tracks north and northwest around the middle of the week. The latest
 official forecast track is close to the TVCE consensus while the
 intensity forecast is supported by global model guidance.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/2100Z 19.1N 163.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 18.9N 164.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 19.0N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  28/0600Z 19.4N 167.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  28/1800Z 20.4N 167.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  29/1800Z 25.0N 169.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  30/1800Z 30.6N 174.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  31/1800Z 34.0N 179.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Burke
  
 
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