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 204 
 WTPA42 PHFO 260857
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  48
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 1100 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
  
 
 After a burst of deep convection that started late last night and 
 continued through this morning, the low-level circulation center 
 (LLCC) of Lane became exposed this afternoon. The thunderstorms
 were quickly sheared away from the center as Lane is embedded in an
 area characterized by 40-50 kt of vertical wind shear. Subjective
 Dvorak Data-T numbers were unavailable due to the lack of convection
 near the center, but current intensities ranged from 2.0/30 kt to
 2.5/35 kt. Given that we've seen these recently-exposed LLCCs
 produce tropical-storm-force winds in the past, the initial
 intensity is estimated to be 35 kt for this advisory. 
 
 The initial motion for this advisory is 260/7 kt. Lane is being 
 driven westward by the low-level trade wind flow supplied by a 
 surface high to the distant northeast. Track guidance is in good 
 agreement in the short term, with Lane tracking generally toward
 the west through 36 hours. Thereafter, guidance spread increases 
 somewhat but not dramatically, and generally shows a brief slowing 
 in forward speed before an accelerated motion toward the northwest 
 evolves. This occurs as Lane interacts with a developing mid-level 
 low to its west. The updated track forecast is very close to the 
 previous, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE. 
 
 With deep convection absent near Lane's center for several hours, 
 the clock is ticking on Lane's status as a tropical cyclone. While 
 the updated forecast anticipates that brief deep convective pulses 
 will occasionally occur in association with Lane, these are not 
 expected to develop over the center, and Lane is now expected to 
 become a post-tropical remnant low by late Sunday. Thereafter, Lane 
 is expected to track toward the west as a weak post-tropical
 remnant low. Assuming Lane survives as a coherent feature, it is
 then expected to interact with a developing low aloft and transition
 to an extratropical low by Tuesday/Wednesday. This low could bring
 gale force winds to portions of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands
 around the middle of the week. 
 
 Around 8 pm HST, Lane passed very close to NOAA buoy 51003, which 
 reported a minimum pressure of 1005 mb and seas just below 12 feet. 
 These data were used to fine tune the analysis.  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0900Z 19.3N 161.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  26/1800Z 19.4N 162.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  27/0600Z 19.3N 163.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  36H  27/1800Z 19.5N 165.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  28/0600Z 20.0N 166.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  29/0600Z 23.6N 168.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  30/0600Z 28.5N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  31/0600Z 33.0N 177.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Birchard
  
 
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