WTPA42 PHFO 260245
Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number 47
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018
500 PM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
The low level circulation center of Lane is exposed in visible
satellite imagery with bursts of deep convection continuing to pulse
east of the low level center. Based on the latest Dvorak fixes and
the latest satellite representation of Lane, we have maintained the
initial intensity at 45 knots with this advisory. Wind radii were
decreased slightly based on a recent ASCAT pass which captured the
eastern side of the circulation.
Strong westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt continues to impact lane.
Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days due to
this strong shear persisting. This follows closely with ICON and
SHIPS guidance. Lane is forecast to weaken to a depression in about
36 hours and to a remnant low by 72 hours. Assuming this low
survives, it may eventually become an extratropical gale low in the
vicinity of the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands around days 4 and 5.
The latest motion for this advisory is 270/8 knots. A slight
increase in forward is expected over the next couple of days as the
low level center remains embedded in the trades south of an area of
high pressure north of Hawaii. By day 3, a turn to the northwest is
expected the the system rounds the southwest side of the high. The
current track forecast has been nudged to the left through 48 hours,
with little change from days 3 through 5. This forecast closely
follows the HWRF, and lies close to the consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0300Z 19.5N 160.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 19.4N 161.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 19.2N 163.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 19.6N 166.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 22.5N 168.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 26.6N 170.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 31/0000Z 31.4N 175.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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