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 562 
 WTPA42 PHFO 251509
 TCDCP2
  
 Tropical Storm Lane Discussion Number  45
 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP142018
 500 AM HST Sat Aug 25 2018
  
 During the past few hours, satellite imagery shows a burst of
 convection has developed near the circulation center of Lane, which
 was nearly totally exposed Friday evening. Lightning has also been
 persistent near the core of this deep convection. More importantly,
 we have been able to see the apparent center of circulation in the
 radar reflectivity data, which helps our confidence in the latest
 location and motion. Lane continues to weaken, so taking a blend of
 the latest satellite intensity estimates, we have lowered the
 initial intensity to 50 knots.
  
 The latest motion for this advisory is 350/3 knots. The current
 track forecast has been nudged slightly to the right through 36
 hours, with little change from days 2 through 5. This forecast
 closely follows the HWRF, and is to the right of the consensus
 models such as TVCN, GFEX and HCCA. There are only subtle changes in
 the track forecast compared with the previous from days 2 through 5.
 Lane is expected to continue weakening due to vertical wind shear of
 greater than 30 knots. The latest intensity forecast has Lane
 becoming post-tropical by day 4. Assuming this low survives, it may
 eventually become an extratropical gale low in the vicinity of the
 Northwestern Hawaiian Islands by day 5.
  
 KEY MESSAGES:
  
 1.  Effects from tropical storms can and do extend well from the
 center. Rain bands around the northern and eastern periphery of Lane
 are still bringing persistent flooding rainfall across parts of the
 state. In addition, strong winds are also possible in these rain
 bands. Winds will be accelerated over higher terrain, through gaps,
 and where winds blow downslope. Winds will also be stronger at the
 upper floors of high rise buildings.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/1500Z 19.8N 158.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 20.2N 158.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 20.3N 160.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 20.2N 162.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 20.4N 163.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 21.2N 166.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  29/1200Z 24.5N 168.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  30/1200Z 29.5N 172.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 Forecaster Houston
  
 
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